The Near East, 1984 to 1995 CE: Turmoil, Conflict, and Shifting Alliances

Sudan: Famine, Revolt, and Military Coups

In 1984 and 1985, Sudan faces a devastating famine exacerbated by drought, placing millions at severe risk, especially in the western regions. Despite the urgency, the Sudanese regime initially attempts to conceal the crisis from international scrutiny. Economic troubles worsen as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lead the government to announce price hikes for basic commodities, sparking widespread unrest.

In March 1985, widespread dissatisfaction triggers mass demonstrations and strikes, particularly in the capital city, Khartoum, but also across Sudan's major urban centers. On April 2, 1985, a unified front of eight unions demands a general political strike aimed explicitly at ending the existing regime. The movement rapidly escalates, culminating in massive demonstrations and an almost total paralysis of governmental institutions and economic activity.

Amidst the escalating turmoil, on April 6, 1985, Lieutenant General Abd ar Rahman Siwar adh Dhahab leads a Sudanese Military Coup, overthrowing President Jaafar Nimeiry, who flees to Egypt. A fifteen-member Transitional Military Council (TMC) assumes control, promising a return to civilian rule.

Unstable Civilian Governments and Renewed Military Rule

In June 1986, Sadiq al Mahdi forms a fragile coalition government comprising his Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the National Islamic Front (NIF), and four southern parties. Despite initial hopes, Mahdi's government proves weak and ineffective, plagued by internal factionalism, corruption, and personal rivalries.

Facing persistent governmental paralysis, Sadiq al Mahdi dismisses his cabinet within a year, citing their failure to draft a new penal code to replace Sharia, reach agreements with the IMF, resolve the ongoing Second Sudanese Civil War, or attract essential remittances from expatriates. A subsequent coalition government also proves ineffective, further destabilizing the nation.

In 1989, as peace negotiations with southern rebels are underway, General Omar al-Bashir leads another military coup, establishing a junta uninterested in negotiation. Al-Bashir consolidates power, ultimately declaring himself president and setting the stage for prolonged authoritarian rule.

Egypt: Mubarak’s Economic Challenges

Under President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues balancing its diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing tensions with Arab neighbors. Internally, however, the country faces severe socio-economic challenges. Despite growth in agricultural and industrial output, Egypt struggles to cope with rapid population growth, urban poverty, and rising unemployment. Massive rural-to-urban migration exacerbates these problems, leading to widespread urban poverty, particularly evident in sprawling slums surrounding Cairo.

Regional Instability and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

This era sees intensifying regional conflicts and significant geopolitical shifts. In Palestine, the First Intifada (1987–1993) dramatically escalates tensions between Palestinians and Israelis, prompting international concern and intervention. This uprising underscores Palestinian grievances against Israeli occupation and fuels increased militancy on both sides.

The persistent Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (ongoing from 1985 to 2000) exacerbates regional instability, resulting in protracted clashes and fostering environments conducive to sustained violence.

Diplomatic efforts, notably the landmark Oslo Accords of 1993 and the subsequent Oslo II Accords in 1995, temporarily renew hopes for peace by outlining frameworks for Palestinian self-governance. Despite these efforts, continuing violence and mutual distrust hinder substantial progress. Related negotiations continue with the Wye River Memorandum (initiated in 1995), underscoring ongoing challenges in securing lasting peace.

Yemen and Broader Regional Dynamics

The Yemeni Civil War of 1994 emerges as another significant regional conflict, illustrating deep-seated internal divisions exacerbated by the aftermath of Yemen’s earlier North-South conflicts.

The Impact of the Cold War’s End

The global Cold War (1947–1991) significantly shapes regional dynamics until its conclusion in the early 1990s. The ideological rivalry and superpower interventions heavily influence local conflicts, alliances, and power structures. Its conclusion sees a realignment of regional strategies and political relationships, affecting both domestic and international policies throughout the Near East.

Legacy of the Era

From 1984 to 1995, the Near East is marked by severe humanitarian crises, political instability, and complex regional conflicts. These events underscore the enduring challenges faced by Sudan, Egypt, and their regional neighbors, laying foundations for further political, economic, and social turmoil in subsequent decades.

The Middle East (2008–2019): Uprisings, Fragmentation, and Shifting Alliances

The period from 2008 to 2019 represents a profound turning point for the Middle East. A series of dramatic events—including the Arab Spring uprisings, escalating regional rivalries, civil wars, and shifting alliances—reshape the political and social landscape, leaving the region significantly altered and deeply fragmented.

The Arab Spring and its Aftermath (2010–2012)

Beginning in late 2010, a wave of popular uprisings, known collectively as the Arab Spring, sweeps across North Africa and the Middle East. Sparked by economic hardship, corruption, and repression, these protests topple longstanding authoritarian rulers and ignite hopes for democratic reform.

In Syria, peaceful protests in March 2011 quickly descend into brutal civil war after President Bashar al-Assad violently suppresses demonstrators. Over the subsequent years, Syria’s conflict escalates into a proxy battleground involving regional and global powers, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, the United States, and various Gulf states. The war results in hundreds of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions, profoundly destabilizing the region.

In the Gulf states, particularly Bahrain, widespread protests erupt in February 2011. Bahrain’s Shi’a-majority demonstrators demand democratic reform and greater equality from their Sunni monarchy. The uprising is suppressed forcefully by Bahraini security forces with Saudi-led GCC military assistance, underscoring deep regional anxieties about Iran’s potential influence.

Iraq and the Rise of ISIS (2013–2017)

Sectarian tensions in Iraq, exacerbated by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s discriminatory policies against the Sunni population, erupt in renewed violence in 2013. The jihadist group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), emerging from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, exploits Sunni grievances, rapidly capturing vast territories across northern and western Iraq and eastern Syria by mid-2014. ISIS proclaims a caliphate, brutally imposes its extremist ideology, commits widespread atrocities, and sparks international outrage.

A U.S.-led coalition launches a comprehensive military campaign against ISIS in 2014, involving heavy airstrikes, support for Kurdish militias (Peshmerga in Iraq, YPG/SDF in Syria), and Iraqi government forces. By late 2017, ISIS loses virtually all territorial control, although it remains a potent insurgency force.

Iran’s Regional Expansion and Nuclear Diplomacy

During this period, Iran significantly expands its regional influence through direct and indirect involvement in conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Supporting militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi’a militias in Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iran establishes itself as a major regional power, fueling intense rivalry with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.

In 2015, after prolonged diplomatic negotiations, Iran signs the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. This agreement curbs Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, tensions escalate dramatically in 2018 when the Trump administration unilaterally withdraws from the JCPOA, reimposing harsh economic sanctions on Iran and igniting fresh geopolitical tensions.

Saudi Arabia: New Leadership, Aggressive Foreign Policy

Saudi Arabia undergoes significant internal and external transformations with the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in 2015. His ambitious economic reform program, Vision 2030, aims to diversify the kingdom’s oil-dependent economy. However, his rule is marked by authoritarian measures, including the detention of political rivals and activists, and most notoriously, the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

Regionally, Saudi Arabia pursues a confrontational foreign policy aimed at curbing Iranian influence. In 2015, it leads a coalition intervention in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The Yemen war becomes a humanitarian disaster, leading to widespread civilian suffering, famine, and international condemnation.

Turkey: Authoritarianism, Kurdish Conflict, and Regional Ambitions

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey moves decisively toward authoritarian governance following a failed military coup attempt in July 2016. Erdoğan purges political opponents, academics, and journalists, consolidating power through constitutional changes granting the presidency unprecedented authority.

Regionally, Turkey increasingly intervenes militarily in Syria, primarily against Kurdish groups that it perceives as affiliates of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). Turkey’s interventions in northern Syria aim to prevent Kurdish autonomy and to establish a buffer zone along its southern border.

The Gulf States: Rising Influence and Internal Rivalries

Qatar emerges prominently as a diplomatic mediator and influential player, leveraging its wealth and media presence via Al Jazeera to influence regional affairs. However, Qatar’s independent stance creates friction, leading to a severe diplomatic crisis in 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt impose a blockade accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism and Iran. Qatar withstands the blockade with support from Turkey, Iran, and international diplomacy, underscoring the fragmentation of GCC unity.

The UAE, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, significantly expands its geopolitical influence. It asserts its presence militarily in Yemen, becomes actively involved in Libya, and deepens alliances with Western powers, positioning itself as a key regional security partner.

Lebanon’s Persistent Instability

Lebanon remains politically fragmented, caught in persistent economic crises, and subject to significant foreign influence, particularly through Hezbollah’s dominance. Sectarian tensions and economic stagnation continue to undermine stability, culminating in nationwide protests in 2019 demanding political reform and transparency.

South Caucasus: Frozen Conflicts and Stability Challenges

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain embroiled in ongoing tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh, with periodic clashes but no substantial resolution. Armenia undergoes a democratic revolution in 2018, bringing Nikol Pashinyan to power with promises of reform and anti-corruption measures.

In Georgia, political polarization persists, with ongoing challenges to democratization. Tensions with Russia remain acute following Russia’s recognition of breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent after a brief war in 2008.

Legacy of Turmoil and Fragmentation (2008–2019)

The period between 2008 and 2019 leaves a legacy of profound transformation, marked by widespread instability, human suffering, and geopolitical shifts. The Arab Spring largely fails to fulfill democratic aspirations, instead giving rise to civil wars, refugee crises, and intensified sectarian divisions. Iran’s strategic gains and Saudi Arabia’s aggressive responses heighten regional tensions, while Turkey’s authoritarian shift alters its role dramatically. The struggle against ISIS reshapes regional security dynamics, and the ongoing Syrian tragedy underscores the failures of international diplomacy.

This era concludes with the Middle East deeply fragmented, economically strained, and politically volatile, laying the groundwork for ongoing challenges and unresolved conflicts that continue to shape the region’s trajectory.