The Near East, 1984 to 1995 CE: Turmoil, Conflict, and Shifting Alliances

Sudan: Famine, Revolt, and Military Coups

In 1984 and 1985, Sudan faces a devastating famine exacerbated by drought, placing millions at severe risk, especially in the western regions. Despite the urgency, the Sudanese regime initially attempts to conceal the crisis from international scrutiny. Economic troubles worsen as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lead the government to announce price hikes for basic commodities, sparking widespread unrest.

In March 1985, widespread dissatisfaction triggers mass demonstrations and strikes, particularly in the capital city, Khartoum, but also across Sudan's major urban centers. On April 2, 1985, a unified front of eight unions demands a general political strike aimed explicitly at ending the existing regime. The movement rapidly escalates, culminating in massive demonstrations and an almost total paralysis of governmental institutions and economic activity.

Amidst the escalating turmoil, on April 6, 1985, Lieutenant General Abd ar Rahman Siwar adh Dhahab leads a Sudanese Military Coup, overthrowing President Jaafar Nimeiry, who flees to Egypt. A fifteen-member Transitional Military Council (TMC) assumes control, promising a return to civilian rule.

Unstable Civilian Governments and Renewed Military Rule

In June 1986, Sadiq al Mahdi forms a fragile coalition government comprising his Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the National Islamic Front (NIF), and four southern parties. Despite initial hopes, Mahdi's government proves weak and ineffective, plagued by internal factionalism, corruption, and personal rivalries.

Facing persistent governmental paralysis, Sadiq al Mahdi dismisses his cabinet within a year, citing their failure to draft a new penal code to replace Sharia, reach agreements with the IMF, resolve the ongoing Second Sudanese Civil War, or attract essential remittances from expatriates. A subsequent coalition government also proves ineffective, further destabilizing the nation.

In 1989, as peace negotiations with southern rebels are underway, General Omar al-Bashir leads another military coup, establishing a junta uninterested in negotiation. Al-Bashir consolidates power, ultimately declaring himself president and setting the stage for prolonged authoritarian rule.

Egypt: Mubarak’s Economic Challenges

Under President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues balancing its diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing tensions with Arab neighbors. Internally, however, the country faces severe socio-economic challenges. Despite growth in agricultural and industrial output, Egypt struggles to cope with rapid population growth, urban poverty, and rising unemployment. Massive rural-to-urban migration exacerbates these problems, leading to widespread urban poverty, particularly evident in sprawling slums surrounding Cairo.

Regional Instability and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

This era sees intensifying regional conflicts and significant geopolitical shifts. In Palestine, the First Intifada (1987–1993) dramatically escalates tensions between Palestinians and Israelis, prompting international concern and intervention. This uprising underscores Palestinian grievances against Israeli occupation and fuels increased militancy on both sides.

The persistent Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (ongoing from 1985 to 2000) exacerbates regional instability, resulting in protracted clashes and fostering environments conducive to sustained violence.

Diplomatic efforts, notably the landmark Oslo Accords of 1993 and the subsequent Oslo II Accords in 1995, temporarily renew hopes for peace by outlining frameworks for Palestinian self-governance. Despite these efforts, continuing violence and mutual distrust hinder substantial progress. Related negotiations continue with the Wye River Memorandum (initiated in 1995), underscoring ongoing challenges in securing lasting peace.

Yemen and Broader Regional Dynamics

The Yemeni Civil War of 1994 emerges as another significant regional conflict, illustrating deep-seated internal divisions exacerbated by the aftermath of Yemen’s earlier North-South conflicts.

The Impact of the Cold War’s End

The global Cold War (1947–1991) significantly shapes regional dynamics until its conclusion in the early 1990s. The ideological rivalry and superpower interventions heavily influence local conflicts, alliances, and power structures. Its conclusion sees a realignment of regional strategies and political relationships, affecting both domestic and international policies throughout the Near East.

Legacy of the Era

From 1984 to 1995, the Near East is marked by severe humanitarian crises, political instability, and complex regional conflicts. These events underscore the enduring challenges faced by Sudan, Egypt, and their regional neighbors, laying foundations for further political, economic, and social turmoil in subsequent decades.

Famine threatens several million people, particularly in western Sudan, in 1984 and 1985 after a period of drought.

The Sudanese regime is trying to hide the situation internationally.

In March 1985, the announcement of the increase in the prices of basic necessities, at the request of the IMF with which the regime was negotiating, triggered the first demonstrations.

On April 2, eight unions call for mobilization and a "general political strike until the abolition of the current regime".

On the 3rd, massive demonstrations shake Khartoum, but also the country's main cities; the strike paralyzes institutions and the economy.

On April 6, 1985, a group of military officers, led by Lieutenant General Abd ar Rahman Siwar adh Dhahab, overthrows Nimeiry, who takes refuge in Egypt.

Three days later, Dhahab authorizes the creation of a fifteen-man Transitional Military Council (TMC) to rule Sudan.

In June 1986, Sadiq al Mahdi forms a coalition government with Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the National Islamic Front (NIF), and four southern parties.

Unfortunately, however, Sadiq proves to be a weak leader and incapable of governing Sudan.

Party factionalism, corruption, personal rivalries, scandals, and political instability characterize the Sadiq regime.

After less than a year in office, Sadiq al Mahdi dismisses the government because it has failed to draft a new penal code to replace the sharia, reach an agreement with the IMF, end the civil war in the south, or devise a scheme to attract remittances from Sudanese expatriates.

To retain the support of the DUP and the southern political parties, Sadiq forms another ineffective coalition government.

In 1989, the government and southern rebels begin to negotiate an end to the war, but a coup d'état brings into power a military junta that is not interested in compromise.

The leader of the junta, Omar al-Bashir, consolidates his power over the next few years, declaring himself president.

The Sudan's three years of political instability, indecisive leadership, short-lived coalitions, and abortive attempts to reach a peaceful settlement with the SPLA culminate on June 30, 1989, when a Revolutionary Command Council for National Salvation (RCC), led by Lieutenant General 'Umar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, seizes power.

The RCC is in fact the vehicle for the NIF, the political party of the Muslim Brotherhood. (The ascension of this fundamentalist regime will, in a few years, prove fortuitous to bin Laden.)

The Near East, 1996 to 2007 CE: Crisis, Conflict, and Political Shifts

Sudan: Darfur Crisis and International Intervention

The turn of the millennium marks a turbulent period for Sudan, especially the Darfur region, where a new rebellion led by the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) erupts in 2003. The rebels accuse the government of neglecting Darfur, sparking violent conflict. In response, government-aligned Janjaweed militias carry out widespread atrocities, causing a devastating humanitarian crisis, the Darfur Food Crisis. Tens of thousands perish, and millions become displaced, many fleeing to neighboring Chad.

In April 2004, under pressure from international communities, negotiations in N'Djamena lead to a fragile Humanitarian Ceasefire Agreement. However, violence persists, prompting the African Union (AU) to deploy ceasefire monitors, initially just a few hundred soldiers, but eventually expanding to about seven thousand under the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS). Yet, the crisis deepens, drawing greater international attention.

On September 18, 2004, the United Nations Security Council issues Resolution 1564, condemning Sudan's government for its continued military attacks and calling for expanded international monitoring. Negotiations remain strained until August 2006, when the Security Council passes Resolution 1706, authorizing a robust seventeen-thousand-strong peacekeeping force. Resistance from the Sudanese government delays deployment, eventually leading to a hybrid African Union–United Nations peacekeeping effort in Darfur.

Meanwhile, Sudan faces profound internal transformations. The National Islamic Front under Hasan al-Turabiintensifies its "top-down" Islamization policy. Educational reforms emphasize Islamic teachings, societal restrictions tighten, and the government supports jihadist ideologies, controversially sheltering figures like Osama bin Laden until his departure. Sudan’s economy struggles under international pressure and internal conflicts.

Cyprus: Divided Entry to the European Union

Cyprus, long divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, faces critical decisions in the early 2000s. In 2000, the European Union agrees to admit Cyprus, hoping membership would foster reunification. However, in 2004, a UN-brokered peace settlement referendum sees overwhelming rejection by Greek Cypriots despite Turkish Cypriot acceptance. Consequently, Cyprus enters the European Union as a divided island, with EU membership effectively suspended for Northern Cyprus.

Egypt: Persistent Political Struggles and Terrorism

Throughout this era, Egypt faces significant internal turmoil under President Hosni Mubarak. Terrorist activities escalate, particularly targeting tourists and the Coptic Christian minority, severely impacting tourism and domestic stability. Despite economic growth in sectors like agriculture and industry, rapid population growth continues to strain resources, amplifying poverty and urban overcrowding, notably around metropolitan Cairo, now home to over twenty million people.

In 2005, Mubarak introduces modest political reforms, allowing Egypt’s first multi-candidate presidential election. However, these reforms are limited, and Mubarak comfortably wins re-election amidst allegations of electoral interference. Post-election repression continues, exemplified by the imprisonment of prominent opposition figures such as Ayman Nour.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflicts and Fragile Peace Efforts

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict sees cycles of intense violence and diplomacy. The Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon finally concludes in 2000, but regional tensions continue. The Second Palestinian Intifada breaks out, lasting from 2000 to 2005, significantly escalating hostilities. Efforts to revive peace negotiations lead to diplomatic agreements such as the Wye River Memorandum (1998) and subsequent discussions, but deep-rooted animosities impede lasting resolutions.

In 2006, the conflict within Palestinian factions escalates dramatically. The Fatah-Hamas conflict intensifies, culminating in the Battle of Gaza in 2007, effectively splitting the Palestinian territories between Hamas-controlled Gaza and Fatah-governed West Bank.

Chad-Sudan Cross-border Tensions

Cross-border tensions between Sudan and Chad escalate during this period, exacerbated by the Darfur conflict and resulting refugee crises. Armed skirmishes and mutual accusations of supporting rebel movements destabilize the region, contributing further to the broader humanitarian crisis.

Legacy of Instability

From 1996 to 2007, the Near East experiences continued political upheaval, significant humanitarian disasters, and profound shifts in regional alliances and internal politics. These events lay the groundwork for ongoing tensions and challenges, underscoring the complex interplay between internal conflicts, regional power dynamics, and international intervention.

Interior East Africa (2008–2019 CE): Independence, Conflict, and Challenges of Nation-Building

Between 2008 and 2019, Interior East Africa witnessed transformative political events marked by South Sudan's independence, persistent regional conflicts, and complex challenges in governance and economic development.

South Sudan: Independence and Immediate Conflict

After decades of civil war and a six-year transitional autonomy under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Southern Sudan held a referendum in January 2011, voting overwhelmingly for independence. On July 9, 2011, South Sudan officially became the world's newest nation, with its capital at Juba and Salva Kiir Mayardit as its first president. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir initially accepted the outcome publicly.

However, independence quickly gave way to renewed violence, particularly in the oil-rich Abyei region, contested by both Sudan and South Sudan. In June 2011, fighting broke out in South Kordofan, as both sides moved forces into position ahead of the scheduled separation date. Under international pressure, Sudan and South Sudan agreed on June 20, 2011, to demilitarize Abyei, leading to the deployment of Ethiopian peacekeepers under a United Nations mandate.

Despite international interventions, South Sudan descended into internal conflict beginning in December 2013, as tensions between President Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar triggered ethnic violence and civil war. Repeated peace agreements and ceasefires throughout the decade failed to create lasting stability, resulting in severe humanitarian crises marked by famine, displacement, and international aid dependency.

Sudan: Continued Struggle and Bashir's Downfall

In Sudan, economic deterioration and political frustration continued, exacerbated by the loss of oil revenues after South Sudan's independence. Persistent unrest culminated in mass demonstrations against President Omar al-Bashir's authoritarian regime in late 2018 and early 2019. After months of sustained protests, Bashir was removed from power in a military coup in April 2019, ending his nearly three-decade rule and paving the way for a transitional government committed to civilian rule.

Ethiopia and Eritrea: Reconciliation and Reform

Ethiopia experienced profound change with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rise to power in 2018. Abiy introduced political liberalization, freed political prisoners, and pursued economic reform. Notably, he brokered a historic peace agreement with Eritrea in 2018, formally ending two decades of hostility and reopening borders, a development recognized internationally, with Abiy receiving the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

However, internal tensions in Ethiopia persisted, with escalating ethnic conflicts and displacement affecting various regions, highlighting ongoing governance and integration challenges.

Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania: Stability and Challenges

In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni maintained control, facing increasing internal criticism over human rights and democracy, especially following the controversial 2016 elections. Meanwhile, Kenya experienced turbulent but ultimately peaceful elections in 2013 and 2017, strengthening democratic institutions despite tensions. Tanzania maintained relative political stability under President Jakaya Kikwete until 2015, when John Magufuli came to power, initiating populist reforms but increasingly suppressing political dissent.

Rwanda and Burundi: Divergent Paths

Rwanda continued to grow economically and strengthen its international profile under President Paul Kagame, despite ongoing concerns over authoritarian governance. Burundi, in contrast, faced escalating internal violence following President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious third-term bid in 2015, leading to unrest, political repression, and a refugee crisis impacting neighboring states.

Zimbabwe: Political Transition and Economic Crisis

Zimbabwe saw the end of President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule in a military-led political transition in 2017, ushering in President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Despite promises of reform, economic instability, hyperinflation, and governance issues continued to plague the nation, prompting ongoing migration and humanitarian challenges in the region.

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By the end of 2019, Interior East Africa was characterized by both significant milestones in peace and democracy, and continuing profound crises, highlighting the complexities of nation-building and governance in the modern era.

A referendum on independence for Southern Sudan is held in January 2011 and the South votes overwhelmingly to secede later this year as the Republic of South Sudan, with its capital at Juba and Kiir Mayardit as its first president.

Omar al-Bashir announces that he accepts the result, but ...

...violence soon erupts in the disputed region of Abyei, claimed by both the North and the South.

On June 6, 2011, armed conflict breaksout in South Kordofan between the forces of Northern and Southern Sudan, ahead of the scheduled independence of the South on July 9

This follows an agreement for both sides to withdraw from Abyei.

The parties agreed on June 20 to demilitarize the contested area of Abyei where Ethiopian peacekeepers will be deployed.

South Sudan becomes an independent country on July 9, 2011.

The Near East, 2008 to 2019 CE: Uprisings, Conflict, and Political Transitions

Sudan: International Justice and Ongoing Turmoil

In 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, charging him with crimes against humanity and war crimes linked to the Darfur conflict. Despite international pressure, al-Bashir continues to hold power, defying the ICC's ruling and exacerbating tensions within the region.

Conflicts in South Kordofan between rival nomadic tribes escalate in 2009 and 2010, leading to significant casualties and mass displacement. The Sudanese government reaches a fragile ceasefire agreement with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in February 2010, temporarily reducing violence in Darfur, although stability remains elusive.

Egypt: Revolution, Coup, and Political Turmoil

In early 2011, Egypt experiences the historic Egyptian Revolution, sparked by widespread discontent with President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, socioeconomic inequalities, and political repression. Massive demonstrations, particularly in Cairo's Tahrir Square, ultimately lead to Mubarak’s resignation and the installation of a transitional government.

Egypt holds democratic elections in 2012, bringing Mohamed Morsi, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, to power as Egypt’s first democratically elected president. However, tensions quickly rise amid accusations of authoritarianism and Islamist dominance. In July 2013, a military coup led by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi removes Morsi from power. El-Sisi assumes the presidency, marking a return to military-led governance, accompanied by widespread crackdowns on dissent.

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Conflict and Political Split

Tensions between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza flare into the destructive Gaza War (2008–2009), resulting in significant casualties and widespread infrastructure damage in Gaza. In subsequent years, the Fatah-Hamas conflict deepens political divisions, further entrenching the administrative split between Gaza and the West Bank.

Yemen: Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis

Yemen descends into severe internal conflict with the onset of the Yemeni Civil War in 2014, characterized by the Houthi rebellion against the internationally recognized government. Regional powers, notably Saudi Arabia and Iran, intervene, intensifying the conflict and triggering a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

South Sudan: Independence and Civil War

In 2011, South Sudan gains independence following a referendum, ending decades of civil war with Sudan. However, peace proves short-lived as internal rivalries quickly ignite the South Sudanese Civil War in 2013. Ethnic tensions, political rivalries, and brutal violence displace millions and exacerbate famine and humanitarian disasters.

Sudan: Revolution and Transitional Government

Sudan faces another historic turning point with the Sudanese Revolution of 2018–2019, driven by public outrage over economic hardship and political oppression. Mass protests across the nation force Omar al-Bashir from power in April 2019, ending his 30-year rule. A transitional military-civilian government emerges, initiating cautious democratic reforms.

Regional Impact and Legacy

Between 2008 and 2019, the Near East undergoes profound transformations marked by revolutions, civil wars, and ongoing political crises. These events significantly reshape regional dynamics, highlighting the complexity and volatility of governance, national identity, and international influence in the region.

The International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for Omar al-Bashir in 2009, accusing him of crimes against humanity and war crimes.