The Near East, 1984 to 1995 CE: Turmoil, Conflict, and Shifting Alliances

Sudan: Famine, Revolt, and Military Coups

In 1984 and 1985, Sudan faces a devastating famine exacerbated by drought, placing millions at severe risk, especially in the western regions. Despite the urgency, the Sudanese regime initially attempts to conceal the crisis from international scrutiny. Economic troubles worsen as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lead the government to announce price hikes for basic commodities, sparking widespread unrest.

In March 1985, widespread dissatisfaction triggers mass demonstrations and strikes, particularly in the capital city, Khartoum, but also across Sudan's major urban centers. On April 2, 1985, a unified front of eight unions demands a general political strike aimed explicitly at ending the existing regime. The movement rapidly escalates, culminating in massive demonstrations and an almost total paralysis of governmental institutions and economic activity.

Amidst the escalating turmoil, on April 6, 1985, Lieutenant General Abd ar Rahman Siwar adh Dhahab leads a Sudanese Military Coup, overthrowing President Jaafar Nimeiry, who flees to Egypt. A fifteen-member Transitional Military Council (TMC) assumes control, promising a return to civilian rule.

Unstable Civilian Governments and Renewed Military Rule

In June 1986, Sadiq al Mahdi forms a fragile coalition government comprising his Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the National Islamic Front (NIF), and four southern parties. Despite initial hopes, Mahdi's government proves weak and ineffective, plagued by internal factionalism, corruption, and personal rivalries.

Facing persistent governmental paralysis, Sadiq al Mahdi dismisses his cabinet within a year, citing their failure to draft a new penal code to replace Sharia, reach agreements with the IMF, resolve the ongoing Second Sudanese Civil War, or attract essential remittances from expatriates. A subsequent coalition government also proves ineffective, further destabilizing the nation.

In 1989, as peace negotiations with southern rebels are underway, General Omar al-Bashir leads another military coup, establishing a junta uninterested in negotiation. Al-Bashir consolidates power, ultimately declaring himself president and setting the stage for prolonged authoritarian rule.

Egypt: Mubarak’s Economic Challenges

Under President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues balancing its diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing tensions with Arab neighbors. Internally, however, the country faces severe socio-economic challenges. Despite growth in agricultural and industrial output, Egypt struggles to cope with rapid population growth, urban poverty, and rising unemployment. Massive rural-to-urban migration exacerbates these problems, leading to widespread urban poverty, particularly evident in sprawling slums surrounding Cairo.

Regional Instability and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

This era sees intensifying regional conflicts and significant geopolitical shifts. In Palestine, the First Intifada (1987–1993) dramatically escalates tensions between Palestinians and Israelis, prompting international concern and intervention. This uprising underscores Palestinian grievances against Israeli occupation and fuels increased militancy on both sides.

The persistent Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (ongoing from 1985 to 2000) exacerbates regional instability, resulting in protracted clashes and fostering environments conducive to sustained violence.

Diplomatic efforts, notably the landmark Oslo Accords of 1993 and the subsequent Oslo II Accords in 1995, temporarily renew hopes for peace by outlining frameworks for Palestinian self-governance. Despite these efforts, continuing violence and mutual distrust hinder substantial progress. Related negotiations continue with the Wye River Memorandum (initiated in 1995), underscoring ongoing challenges in securing lasting peace.

Yemen and Broader Regional Dynamics

The Yemeni Civil War of 1994 emerges as another significant regional conflict, illustrating deep-seated internal divisions exacerbated by the aftermath of Yemen’s earlier North-South conflicts.

The Impact of the Cold War’s End

The global Cold War (1947–1991) significantly shapes regional dynamics until its conclusion in the early 1990s. The ideological rivalry and superpower interventions heavily influence local conflicts, alliances, and power structures. Its conclusion sees a realignment of regional strategies and political relationships, affecting both domestic and international policies throughout the Near East.

Legacy of the Era

From 1984 to 1995, the Near East is marked by severe humanitarian crises, political instability, and complex regional conflicts. These events underscore the enduring challenges faced by Sudan, Egypt, and their regional neighbors, laying foundations for further political, economic, and social turmoil in subsequent decades.

The Israeli government, in response to the massacre at the Cave of the Patriarchs, sets up a judicial commission of inquiry, bans Kach and Kahana Hai, and agrees to a "temporary international presence in Hebron" to monitor Palestinian-settler relations.

The talks with the Palestinians restart within a month, and a detailed agreement for Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and Jericho has been hammered out by the end of April.

The Oslo Accords, signed initially in September 1993, comprise a series of agreements, the second of which, the Cairo Agreement on the Gaza Strip and Jericho, is signed on May 4, 1994.

This pact enacts the provisions set forth in the original declaration, which had endorsed a five-year interim self-rule for a Palestinian authority to be executed in two stages: first in Gaza and the city of Jericho and then, after an election, throughout the remaining areas under Israeli military rule.

Talks on final status are to begin after three years, with a two-year deadline for an agreement to be reached.

Issues such as borders, the return of refugees, the status of Jerusalem, and Jewish settlements in the occupied territories are reserved for final status talks.

The PLO recognizes Israel's right to exist, renounces terrorism, and agrees to change the portions of its charter that called for Israel's destruction.

Israel recognizes the PLO as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.

Prime minister Yitzhak Rabin's decision arouses enormous opposition from the Likud and most settlers, although the majority of Israelis at first strongly support him, especially since the agreement enables Israel to rid itself of the tumultuous Gaza Strip.

Peace diplomacy bolsters what has already been a period of strong economic expansion in Israel.

Austerity during the 1980s has wrung out bad debt and inefficiency at considerable cost.

Many kibbutzim, deprived of cheap credit and a subsidized water supply, have either failed or shifted from agriculture to light industry.

Koor Industries Ltd., Histadrut's industrial holding company, has itself fallen on hard times and defaults on a number of loans before it is restructured.

The Israeli government still controls half the economy, but the earlier socialist ideology, once the mainstay of Israeli politics, is clearly on the wane.

The Israelis, despite acts of violence committed by extremist groups on both sides attempting to sabotage the peace process, complete their withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and ...

...the West Bank town of Jericho in May 1994.

Palestinian flags are hoisted as the departing Israelis hand over all 38 civil administration departments and nine thousand armed Palestinian police move in to take over internal security.

...Gaza areas.

Palestinian police and Israeli soldiers begin joint patrols.

King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin seal an end to the forty-six-year state of war between Jordan and Israel at a Washington ceremony with U.S. President Clinton in July 1994.

They commit to signing a peace treaty.

Hussein, in an unprecedented move, flies over Israel and Jerusalem with an Israeli fighter jet escort on his way home from the Washington summit.

PLO chairman Yasser Arafat, after dismantling his PLO headquarters in Tunis, enters Gaza in triumph on July 1, 1994.