Sudanese Revolution
2018 CE to 2019 CE
The Sudanese Revolution is a major shift of political power in Sudan that starts with street protests throughout Sudan on December 19, 2018, and continues with sustained civil disobedience for about eight months, during which the April 11, 2019, Sudanese coup d'état deposes President Omar al-Bashir after thirty years in power, the June 3 Khartoum massacre takes place under the leadership of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) that replaces al-Bashir, and in July and August 2019 the TMC and the Forces of Freedom and Change alliance (FFC) sign a Political Agreement and a Draft Constitutional Declaration legally defining a planned thirty-nine-month phase of transitional state institutions and procedures to return Sudan to a civilian democracy.
In August and September 2019, the TMC formally transfers executive power to a mixed military–civilian collective head of state, the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, and to a civilian prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok and a mostly civilian cabinet, while judicial power is transferred to Nemat Abdullah Khair, Sudan's first female Chief Justice.
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Interior East Africa (2008–2019 CE): Independence, Conflict, and Challenges of Nation-Building
Between 2008 and 2019, Interior East Africa witnessed transformative political events marked by South Sudan's independence, persistent regional conflicts, and complex challenges in governance and economic development.
South Sudan: Independence and Immediate Conflict
After decades of civil war and a six-year transitional autonomy under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Southern Sudan held a referendum in January 2011, voting overwhelmingly for independence. On July 9, 2011, South Sudan officially became the world's newest nation, with its capital at Juba and Salva Kiir Mayardit as its first president. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir initially accepted the outcome publicly.
However, independence quickly gave way to renewed violence, particularly in the oil-rich Abyei region, contested by both Sudan and South Sudan. In June 2011, fighting broke out in South Kordofan, as both sides moved forces into position ahead of the scheduled separation date. Under international pressure, Sudan and South Sudan agreed on June 20, 2011, to demilitarize Abyei, leading to the deployment of Ethiopian peacekeepers under a United Nations mandate.
Despite international interventions, South Sudan descended into internal conflict beginning in December 2013, as tensions between President Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar triggered ethnic violence and civil war. Repeated peace agreements and ceasefires throughout the decade failed to create lasting stability, resulting in severe humanitarian crises marked by famine, displacement, and international aid dependency.
Sudan: Continued Struggle and Bashir's Downfall
In Sudan, economic deterioration and political frustration continued, exacerbated by the loss of oil revenues after South Sudan's independence. Persistent unrest culminated in mass demonstrations against President Omar al-Bashir's authoritarian regime in late 2018 and early 2019. After months of sustained protests, Bashir was removed from power in a military coup in April 2019, ending his nearly three-decade rule and paving the way for a transitional government committed to civilian rule.
Ethiopia and Eritrea: Reconciliation and Reform
Ethiopia experienced profound change with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rise to power in 2018. Abiy introduced political liberalization, freed political prisoners, and pursued economic reform. Notably, he brokered a historic peace agreement with Eritrea in 2018, formally ending two decades of hostility and reopening borders, a development recognized internationally, with Abiy receiving the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
However, internal tensions in Ethiopia persisted, with escalating ethnic conflicts and displacement affecting various regions, highlighting ongoing governance and integration challenges.
Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania: Stability and Challenges
In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni maintained control, facing increasing internal criticism over human rights and democracy, especially following the controversial 2016 elections. Meanwhile, Kenya experienced turbulent but ultimately peaceful elections in 2013 and 2017, strengthening democratic institutions despite tensions. Tanzania maintained relative political stability under President Jakaya Kikwete until 2015, when John Magufuli came to power, initiating populist reforms but increasingly suppressing political dissent.
Rwanda and Burundi: Divergent Paths
Rwanda continued to grow economically and strengthen its international profile under President Paul Kagame, despite ongoing concerns over authoritarian governance. Burundi, in contrast, faced escalating internal violence following President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious third-term bid in 2015, leading to unrest, political repression, and a refugee crisis impacting neighboring states.
Zimbabwe: Political Transition and Economic Crisis
Zimbabwe saw the end of President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule in a military-led political transition in 2017, ushering in President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Despite promises of reform, economic instability, hyperinflation, and governance issues continued to plague the nation, prompting ongoing migration and humanitarian challenges in the region.
By the end of 2019, Interior East Africa was characterized by both significant milestones in peace and democracy, and continuing profound crises, highlighting the complexities of nation-building and governance in the modern era.
The Near East, 2008 to 2019 CE: Uprisings, Conflict, and Political Transitions
Sudan: International Justice and Ongoing Turmoil
In 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, charging him with crimes against humanity and war crimes linked to the Darfur conflict. Despite international pressure, al-Bashir continues to hold power, defying the ICC's ruling and exacerbating tensions within the region.
Conflicts in South Kordofan between rival nomadic tribes escalate in 2009 and 2010, leading to significant casualties and mass displacement. The Sudanese government reaches a fragile ceasefire agreement with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in February 2010, temporarily reducing violence in Darfur, although stability remains elusive.
Egypt: Revolution, Coup, and Political Turmoil
In early 2011, Egypt experiences the historic Egyptian Revolution, sparked by widespread discontent with President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, socioeconomic inequalities, and political repression. Massive demonstrations, particularly in Cairo's Tahrir Square, ultimately lead to Mubarak’s resignation and the installation of a transitional government.
Egypt holds democratic elections in 2012, bringing Mohamed Morsi, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, to power as Egypt’s first democratically elected president. However, tensions quickly rise amid accusations of authoritarianism and Islamist dominance. In July 2013, a military coup led by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi removes Morsi from power. El-Sisi assumes the presidency, marking a return to military-led governance, accompanied by widespread crackdowns on dissent.
Palestinian Territories: Gaza Conflict and Political Split
Tensions between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza flare into the destructive Gaza War (2008–2009), resulting in significant casualties and widespread infrastructure damage in Gaza. In subsequent years, the Fatah-Hamas conflict deepens political divisions, further entrenching the administrative split between Gaza and the West Bank.
Yemen: Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis
Yemen descends into severe internal conflict with the onset of the Yemeni Civil War in 2014, characterized by the Houthi rebellion against the internationally recognized government. Regional powers, notably Saudi Arabia and Iran, intervene, intensifying the conflict and triggering a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
South Sudan: Independence and Civil War
In 2011, South Sudan gains independence following a referendum, ending decades of civil war with Sudan. However, peace proves short-lived as internal rivalries quickly ignite the South Sudanese Civil War in 2013. Ethnic tensions, political rivalries, and brutal violence displace millions and exacerbate famine and humanitarian disasters.
Sudan: Revolution and Transitional Government
Sudan faces another historic turning point with the Sudanese Revolution of 2018–2019, driven by public outrage over economic hardship and political oppression. Mass protests across the nation force Omar al-Bashir from power in April 2019, ending his 30-year rule. A transitional military-civilian government emerges, initiating cautious democratic reforms.
Regional Impact and Legacy
Between 2008 and 2019, the Near East undergoes profound transformations marked by revolutions, civil wars, and ongoing political crises. These events significantly reshape regional dynamics, highlighting the complexity and volatility of governance, national identity, and international influence in the region.